I think therefore I am

Between work and life I have had zero time to keep up with things. However, a few of the things on my plate have passed, and I will be back in the swing of things tomorrow.

I am finding that November and December are tough blogging months for me!

Link. They are within two points of each other among Democrats. Kevin Mannix continues to lead for the Republicans.

Link. In this survey, Tommy Thompson, who has not indicated an inclination to join the race, holds a two point lead over incumbent Democratic Senator Herb Kohl, 44%-42%.

In the Gubernatorial race, incumbent Democrat Jim Doyle holds a 3 point lead over Mark Green or a 6 point lead over Scott Walker.

Link. In this poll, Casey holds a 15 point advantage over Santorum, 51%-36%; a bit closer than other recent polls, but not all that competitive. In the Governor’s race, Rendell leads Scranton by 2 or Swann by 3.

The Randolph Reporter:

Republican State Sen. Thomas Kean, Jr., R-Morris, son of former Gov. Thomas Kean, said last Wednesday he intends to run for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Gov.-Elect Jon Corzine.

Kean is the first person from either party to make a formal bid for the office, but will probably not be the last. Assemblyman Michael Doherty, R-Hunterdon, fresh from his victory in last Tuesday’s election with running mate Marcia Karrow in the 23rd Legislative District Assembly race, said Monday that he has been considering a run for the U.S. Senate seat.

Doherty would run as a more conservative option, but would have a tough road to hoe to overcome Kean’s name-recognition advantage– and if recent elections in New Jersey are any indication, Kean is the best only chance for the GOP. It has been a very long time since a conservative Republican has won a top-tier statewide race in the Garden State.

The article includes an interesting tidbit:

In a recent Quinnipiac University opinion poll, Kean held a slight lead against several Democrats with the exception of acting Gov. Richard Codey. If he runs unopposed, Kean is set to face off against a crowded field of Democrats amassing to fill out Corzine’s final year — giving them a de facto incumbency.

I had not seen that poll result, and a check of the online results came up empty. Perhaps one of the surveys had some data which did not make the press release? I’ll send the polling director at Quinnipiac a query and find out what the deal is.

The Hill:

With the launch this week of a statewide ad blitz, the hiring last month of Sen. Chuck Hagel’s deputy chief of staff and $25 million to his name, Ameritrade executive-turned-Senate hopeful Pete Ricketts is attracting widespread interest in Nebraska…

Ricketts’s campaign manager, Pat Fiske, said the political neophyte would define himself instead of letting his rivals do that for him. Fiske, a veteran of campaigns in Colorado and Texas, characterized Ricketts as a results-oriented outsider who learned to make tough spending cuts from his days as Ameritrade’s chief operating officer, particularly after the 2000-2001 dot-com bust.

It is going to be very difficult for whichever Republican emerges from the primary here to unseat Democrat incumbent Ben Nelson, who is easily the most conservative Democrat in the Senate. Still, the race for the nomination merits attention for two reasons.

First, Nebraska is an overwhelmingly Republican state, so while beating Nelson will be difficult it is not impossible.

Second, there is a signficant contrast in approaches being taken by the three Republican contenders, and at least two of the three are executing their approach exceedingly well. The article linked discusses how Ricketts is using his wealth to give him the means to define himself before his opponents can, and is using his political inexperience as a positive, painting himself as an outsider with different (yet valuable) experience in acheiving positive results. This is an approach that is often taken by wealthy businessmen-turned-politicians, and it does not often work, but Ricketts is showing unusual savviness so far. Meanwhile, former state GOP chairman David Kramer has been going the grassroots and local party machinery route, managing to keep his name in the news for weeks on end with appearances and announcements. This, too, is an approach often taken but rarely done as well as he has so far.

Don Stenberg is relying on his past electoral success, and the fact that he has given Nelson a competitive race previously.

Whichever candidate emerges will be a substantial underdog. However, I’ll be watching the battle with interest, because it is rare to see such contrasting approaches being executed so well.

The Tennessean:

Tennessee Right to Life’s political action committee will endorse U.S. Senate candidate Ed Bryant today, its president confirmed yesterday…

This is a significant endorsement. Not every state’s Right to Life organization is equal, and Tennessee’s is noted for its effectiveness in helping turn out the vote. Further, it lines up one domino that needs to fall if the nomination will be wrested away from Bob Corker.

This is setting up an interesting dynamic for the Republican nomination. Corker has been decidedly winning the fundraising battle, and seemingly has the support of the Republican establishment. Despite tepid poll numbers so far (admittedly, most from other campaigns, both Republican and Democrat), this makes him the man to beat in the race.

In order for him to not get the nomination, it would take grassroots organizations to coalesce around one of the alternatives– Ed Bryant or Van Hilleary– and then the other to decide to bow out. It will be difficult for either to overcome the financial and establishment advantages that Corker is currently enjoying. If it remains a three-man race, it will be prohibitively difficult. There will be pressure on one of them to withdraw, as we can see in this Memphis Flyer article:

While insisting, “I could win a three-man race,” Bryant said he regarded Tuesday’s endorsement as “the first step” in persuading Hilleary to step aside. “It would certainly make things easier, and he would live to fight another day.”

Brian Harris, the president of Tennessee Right to Life, indicated to reporters that he, too, had urged a “deeply disappointed” Hilleary to allow the state’s pro-life movement to unify behind a single candidate in the Republican primary. Harris stopped just short of saying he had directly asked Hilleary, whom he pronounced “acceptable” on the abortion issue, to step aside.

Ben Cunningham, founder of Tennessee Tax Revolt, also has endorsed Bryant, as has the state affiliate of the Concerned Women for America and the Madison Project. Hilleary is in a difficult position. He badly needs to stem the tide of conservative organizations endorsing Bryant, but even if he does manage this, it would result in merely a split– which would leave the door wide open for Corker. The path for him to the nomination is becoming increasingly hard to find.

However, he could end up as the kingmaker; if he stays then it is hard to envision Corker losing, whereas if he drops out and throws his support to Bryant it could be a real horserace. The questions then become if and when he will realize this dynamic, and which of his opponents he would prefer to have the nomination.

Bloomberg:

The Democrats’ House of Representatives campaign committee raised more money in September than its Republican counterpart, the first month this year that’s happened, Federal Election Commission figures show. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has raised $4 million more than its Republican rival this year…

I’ve been skeptical of the idea that 2006 is shaping up as another 1994. However, if the House fundraising numbers here turn out to be more than just a one-month abberation, that will be compelling evidence in that direction.

The Associated Press:

State Democratic Chairman Dan Parker says the party hasn’t fielded a candidate yet to challenge Lugar because few people want to take on one of the most popular politicians in state history.

This is somewhat surprising given the current poll difficulties facing Republicans seemingly nationwide.

The Ledger:

Jim Dornan, a GOP consultant with a long background in national politics, stepped down from his position as Harris’ campaign manager, citing a “difference of opinions.” He will remain on the Longboat Key Republican’s team as a “senior adviser.”

In a statement released on The Hotline, a Washington, D.C., political newsletter, Dornan said that Harris felt “her first obligation is to her constituents” as a congresswoman while he “felt it was imperative that Mrs. Harris devote more time and energy to her campaign.”

This is a campaign that is in some serious trouble. Harris has been unable to raise funds at a level sufficient to run a competitive race against the incumbent Bill Nelson, and the state’s GOP has been openly trying to find an alternative candidate. It does not take much imagination to think that this move had a lot to do with Dornan reading the tea leaves.

Senate and Governor.

A Rasmussen Reports Election 2006 poll finds DeWine trailing challenger Paul Hackett by a single point, 42% to 41%. Five percent (5%) say they’d vote for someone else while 12% are undecided…

Democratic Congressman Ted Strickland holds a six-point lead over two possible Republican candidates in the race to become Ohio’s next Governor.

Strickland leads Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell by a 42% to 36% margin. Six percent (6%) say that they would prefer a third party candidate and 15% are not sure.

Strickland leads former Congressman John Kasich 39% to 33%. This match-up leads 7% to prefer some other candidate and 21% are undecided.

These results track well with the earlier Columbus Dispatch poll, which was interesting because its sample had significantly more Democrats than one would expect for Ohio. This is indicative of a state of affairs where Democrats are significantly more energized than Republicans– but it makes the results of the election this year in Ohio more of a head scratcher. One would have expected the ballot initiatives pushed by liberals to have had greater success with that underlying sentiment.

Let’s get it started, yeah…

The polls are not being kind to Harris today. Quinnipiac:

Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson begins his reelection year with a 55 - 31 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris, the only announced Republican challenger in the 2006 Florida U.S. Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

That margin is unchanged since August.

Link:

The latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds Nelson attracting 53% of the vote while Harris earns just 36%. Nelson, a Democrat in a “Red State,” was long considered a potentially vulnerable incumbent for the 2006 cycle.

Jeremy Wallace in the Herald-Tribune:

But during the past two weeks, Bense has rekindled speculation that he may still be interested. First, Bense put out a press release stating his support of the nomination of Samuel Alito Jr. for the U.S. Supreme Court, something he didn’t do for either of the two previous court nominations. Then last week, Bense refused to tell Tallahassee reporters that he definitely won’t run when asked about the race.

“You never say never, but I’m very focused on what I’m doing today, right now,” he said.